On October 13, 2026, the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and research firm Atlas Public Policy published a report titled "An Inflection Point for the U.S. Power Sector." The document notes that after years of growth in clean energy capacity, the pipeline of new power projects in the U.S. is shifting sharply toward fossil fuels. While fossil sources accounted for only 5% of new power capacity commissioned in 2024, they now make up about 30% of projects under development — the highest level since 2016. On October 19, 2026, The Verge covered the report, writing that the U.S. is building fossil fuel infrastructure on a scale not seen in a decade.
Key Findings of the Report
The report's figures illustrate the scale of the shift. Developers plan to build about 68 gigawatts of new fossil fuel capacity in 2026–2030 — a figure that grew by 45% in just six months. Nearly all of the planned new fossil fuel capacity will be natural gas power plants — the report names natural gas as the main direction. In other words, developers' fossil fuel plans expanded nearly one and a half times in half a year.
The authors note that if current projects come online as scheduled, roughly 70% of new power capacity connected to the grid in 2030 could come from fossil fuels, mainly natural gas. They stress that this figure rests on the assumption that all current projects are completed on schedule. It ranks among the report's key findings.
Coal capacity receives particular attention. Although plant owners planned to retire 8.5 gigawatts of coal capacity in 2025, less than 1 gigawatt was actually retired by year-end — only a very small share of the planned retirements materialized. The report calls it the lowest figure since 2009. Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced $850 million in support for coal facilities — including two proposed new coal plants.
Why Electricity Demand Is Growing
On October 19, 2026, The Verge reported, citing the report, that the U.S. is building fossil fuel infrastructure on a scale not seen in a decade, while renewable energy growth is slowing. According to the outlet, electricity demand is growing at its fastest pace in more than a decade — with more data centers, factories, and electric vehicles connecting to the grid.
"The US is building more fossil fuel infrastructure than it has in a decade while renewable energy growth slows, with electricity demand climbing faster than it has in more than a decade as more data centers, factories and electric vehicles plug into the grid." — The Verge, October 19, 2026
The EDF report also notes that part of the growing electricity demand is tied to the rapid expansion of data centers. Rising demand coincides with the growing fossil fuel share of the project pipeline.
The outlet also notes that the factors listed in the quote — data centers, factories, and electric vehicles — continue connecting to the grid. Citing the report, The Verge stresses that electricity demand is growing at its fastest pace in more than a decade.
The Policy Shift
The report's authors show that federal policy is also shaping the pipeline's composition. The Trump administration scrapped tax credits for wind and solar power. The administration is also blocking some clean energy projects or delaying their implementation. Coal plants slated for retirement were ordered to keep operating, while fossil fuel investments are backed by the state. The report notes that these measures together — the repeal of tax credits, the blocking or delay of clean energy projects, the forced continued operation of coal plants, and support for fossil fuel investment — are intensifying the pipeline's shift toward fossil fuels.
Cost Comparison
Production costs also feature among the report's key findings. According to the report, the average lifetime cost of new wind farms and large solar power plants is about $68–$69 per megawatt-hour. For a new combined-cycle natural gas plant, the same figure is recorded at around $90. The authors included these prices among the document's main findings. That is, by the report's calculations, new wind and solar capacity works out cheaper than natural gas over its lifetime.
